Today: AA 3006 at 23:59 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–55%.

Safest bet today AA 3006 ONT 23:59 → DFW 05:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time Riskiest AA 1820 ONT 10:41 → DFW 15:15 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3006 American Flight history →	ONT 23:59	DFW 05:00	33%	8%	1.8%	70%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	ONT 14:29	DFW 19:46	36%	19%	2.4%	73%
F9 1406 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 19:43	DFW 00:49	37%	27%	3.0%	79%worse than usual
AA 2238 American Flight history →	ONT 10:25	DFW 15:37	39%	22%	3.0%	81%worse than usual
AA 2239 American Flight history →	ONT 14:15	DFW 19:30	39%	22%	2.7%	57%
AA 2242 American Flight history →	ONT 12:35	DFW 17:50	40%	22%	3.0%	75%worse than usual
AA 2956 American Flight history →	ONT 12:44	DFW 17:59	42%	22%	3.0%	71%worse than usual
AA 1820 American Flight history →	ONT 10:41	DFW 15:15	55%	27%	2.7%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON