tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:25 am at Ontario)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 61% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229 9h 51m 99% 61%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:35 → DFW 17:50AA 2242 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:08 → FLL 23:58AA 1393 8h 23m 97% 47%
AmericanDetails → ONT 10:41 → DFW 15:15AA 1820 3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:55 → FLL 22:52AA 2946 9h 11m 90% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 8h 20m 66% 48%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 1h 07m Denver DEN 17:45 → FLL 23:49UA 1374 7h 31m 70% 42%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:44 → DFW 17:59AA 2956 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:55 → FLL 22:52AA 2946 7h 08m 52% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON