Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:35 am at Ontario)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:48, is the safest bet: 58% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	8h 36m	93%	58%
American Details →	ONT 12:35 → DFW 17:50AA 2242	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:13 → LGA 23:45AA 2708	8h 10m	76%	35%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263	57m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033	7h 12m	63%	37%
American Details →	ONT 12:43 → DFW 17:59AA 2956	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:01 → LGA 23:31AA 1375	7h 48m	61%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON