tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:09 pm at Ontario)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:18, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:18 → PHX 20:47AA 1666 2h 18m Phoenix PHX 23:05 → MIA 06:28 +1AA 2654 8h 10m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:15 → PHX 20:36AA 2639 3h 07m Phoenix PHX 23:43 → MIA 07:19 +1AA 3224 9h 04m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → ONT 17:10 → SLC 20:03DL 4443 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 30m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769 10h 00m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → ONT 13:02 → PHX 14:29AA 2661 1h 55m Phoenix PHX 16:24 → MIA 23:54AA 496 7h 52m 88% 59%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:35 → DFW 17:50AA 2242 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:01 → MIA 00:02 +1AA 2090 8h 27m 95% 45%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:15 → PHX 20:36AA 2639 1h 24m Phoenix PHX 22:00 → MIA 05:22 +1AA 2205 7h 07m 74% 48%
FrontierDetails → ONT 20:15 → LAS 21:35F9 4206 54m Las Vegas LAS 22:29 → MIA 06:30 +1F9 4552 7h 15m 70% 47%
AmericanDetails → ONT 12:43 → DFW 17:59AA 2956 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:12 → MIA 22:59AA 1824 7h 16m 72% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON