tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:49 pm at Ontario); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:19, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:19 → PHX 20:47AA 1666 2h 56m Phoenix PHX 23:43 → ORD 05:06 +1AA 2059 7h 47m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → ONT 18:39 → SFO 20:07UA 5624 · flown by SkyWest 3h 23m San Francisco SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368 9h 18m 100% 68%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 18:49 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958 9h 09m 98% 62%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 18:56 → SEA 21:33AS 592 2h 08m Seattle SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285 8h 45m 86% 53%
AmericanDetails → ONT 14:29 → DFW 19:46AA 2635 2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193 8h 21m 93% 46%
AmericanDetails → ONT 14:15 → DFW 19:30AA 2239 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:33 → ORD 23:50AA 1620 7h 35m 77% 34%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ONT 14:15 → DFW 19:30AA 2239 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:00 → ORD 23:39AA 2346 7h 24m 69% 35%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 14:10 → SEA 16:47AS 575 1h 01m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 7h 49m 55% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON