Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 28–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 4716 ORD 20:20 → ASE 22:23 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4914 ORD 19:24 → ASE 21:17 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 4716 SkyWest	ORD 20:20	ASE 22:23	28%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 6186 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:49	ASE 21:56	29%	9%	0.9%	63%
UA 5254 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:47	ASE 22:00	30%	9%	0.9%	62%
OO 4914 SkyWest	ORD 19:24	ASE 21:17	33%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON