Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 44% on a calm day. Safest: UA 312 at 19:58, 52%.

Safest bet today UA 312 ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest AA 1715 ORD 19:16 → AUS 22:00 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Weather 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 44% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 312 United Flight history →	ORD 19:58	AUS 22:54	52%	20%	0.7%	68%worse than usual
AA 2433 American	ORD 19:10	AUS 22:02	56%	24%	1.1%	no record
AA 935 American Flight history →	ORD 21:16	AUS 23:59	58%	20%	1.0%	45%
AA 1715 American Flight history →	ORD 19:16	AUS 22:00	60%	22%	1.0%	61%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON