Today: AA 1224 at 23:00 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–38%.

Safest bet today AA 1224 ORD 23:00 → BNA 00:43 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4918 ORD 18:10 → BNA 19:44 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1224 American	ORD 23:00	BNA 00:43	20%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 2556 American Flight history →	ORD 21:31	BNA 23:11	26%	9%	0.2%	44%
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:15	BNA 18:58	28%	6%	0.3%	63%
UA 314 United	ORD 21:49	BNA 23:35	28%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 6326 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:29	BNA 21:14	33%	12%	0.5%	53%
UA 2784 United Flight history →	ORD 17:58	BNA 19:44	35%	9%	0.2%	63%
UA 1897 United	ORD 16:09	BNA 17:54	35%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 739 United	ORD 18:27	BNA 20:02	38%	10%	0.2%	no record
OO 4918 SkyWest	ORD 18:10	BNA 19:44	38%	11%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON