Today: YX 4529 at 20:44 is the safest bet, 27% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Safest bet today YX 4529 ORD 20:44 → CAE 23:56 · 27% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5594 ORD 17:49 → CAE 20:52 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4529 Republic	ORD 20:44	CAE 23:56	27%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 5594 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:49	CAE 20:52	39%	11%	0.6%	54%
UA 4478 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	CAE 21:16	27%	14%	6.9%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON