Today: MQ 3838 at 21:33 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–44%.

Safest bet today MQ 3838 ORD 21:33 → CLE 00:07 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1934 ORD 19:24 → CLE 21:55 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3838 Envoy	ORD 21:33	CLE 00:07	23%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 3466 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:34	CLE 20:07	26%	4%	0.6%	72%
MQ 3912 Envoy	ORD 17:52	CLE 19:39	33%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 457 United Flight history →	ORD 21:20	CLE 23:49	35%	9%	0.3%	57%
UA 2652 United Flight history →	ORD 17:53	CLE 20:21	36%	8%	0.2%	58%
UA 1641 United Flight history →	ORD 19:59	CLE 22:29	36%	9%	0.2%	64%
UA 1156 United	ORD 20:02	CLE 22:29	37%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 1934 American Flight history →	ORD 19:24	CLE 21:55	44%	12%	0.6%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON