Today: MQ 3685 at 21:33 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Safest bet today MQ 3685 ORD 21:33 → DAY 23:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4972 ORD 20:29 → DAY 22:51 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3685 Envoy	ORD 21:33	DAY 23:57	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 4972 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 20:29	DAY 22:51	35%	11%	0.8%	48%
UA 4589 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 21:20	DAY 23:49	31%	14%	7.2%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON