Today: AA 535 at 21:06 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–37%.

Safest bet today AA 535 ORD 21:06 → DCA 00:19 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1787 ORD 17:55 → DCA 20:59 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 24 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 535 American	ORD 21:06	DCA 00:19	22%	9%	0.4%	no record
AA 489 American Flight history →	ORD 17:11	DCA 20:26	31%	9%	0.5%	70%
UA 2812 United	ORD 16:20	DCA 19:28	32%	7%	0.5%	no record
UA 2160 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	DCA 22:54	33%	11%	0.3%	56%
UA 2761 United	ORD 17:19	DCA 20:26	35%	8%	0.3%	no record
UA 1369 United Flight history →	ORD 18:00	DCA 21:10	35%	8%	0.3%	50%
AA 514 American	ORD 17:53	DCA 20:58	35%	9%	0.5%	no record
AA 1787 American Flight history →	ORD 17:55	DCA 20:59	37%	11%	0.5%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON