Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: UA 377 at 21:50, 36%.

Safest bet today UA 377 ORD 21:50 → DEN 23:48 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest UA 767 ORD 21:57 → DEN 23:33 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Weather 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 27 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 377 United Flight history →	ORD 21:50	DEN 23:48	36%	10%	0.2%	72%
AA 2001 American	ORD 22:38	DEN 00:33	42%	11%	0.3%	no record
UA 767 United Flight history →	ORD 21:57	DEN 23:33	44%	10%	0.2%	71%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON