Today: MQ 3794 at 19:17 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–50%.

Safest bet today MQ 3794 ORD 19:17 → DFW 21:56 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3241 ORD 13:12 → DFW 15:48 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 15 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3794 Envoy	ORD 19:17	DFW 21:56	35%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 2281 American Flight history →	ORD 21:25	DFW 23:48	36%	10%	0.7%	63%
UA 1673 United Flight history →	ORD 19:50	DFW 22:36	37%	9%	0.5%	65%
AA 2429 American Flight history →	ORD 15:10	DFW 17:48	38%	10%	0.8%	73%worse than usual
AA 2257 American Flight history →	ORD 14:59	DFW 17:35	39%	11%	0.8%	65%
AA 2451 American	ORD 13:48	DFW 16:20	39%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 2600 American Flight history →	ORD 20:59	DFW 23:32	39%	11%	0.7%	52%
AA 1120 American Flight history →	ORD 13:25	DFW 15:59	40%	14%	0.7%	49%
UA 309 United	ORD 14:35	DFW 17:09	42%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 2290 United Flight history →	ORD 13:05	DFW 15:48	43%	10%	0.6%	76%worse than usual
AA 2499 American Flight history →	ORD 17:31	DFW 20:05	45%	13%	0.7%	56%
AA 1559 American Flight history →	ORD 18:18	DFW 20:55	45%	11%	0.7%	41%
AA 2754 American Flight history →	ORD 15:49	DFW 18:25	45%	11%	0.8%	63%
AA 2531 American Flight history →	ORD 16:13	DFW 18:46	45%	11%	0.8%	73%worse than usual
AA 2988 American Flight history →	ORD 16:51	DFW 19:28	46%	13%	0.8%	46%
UA 793 United Flight history →	ORD 15:40	DFW 18:22	46%	12%	0.5%	68%worse than usual
AA 1106 American Flight history →	ORD 12:47	DFW 14:39	50%	10%	0.8%	41%
F9 3241 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 13:12	DFW 15:48	50%	22%	1.4%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON