Today: B6 406 at 17:27 is the safest bet, 54% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 67%.

Safest bet today B6 406 ORD 17:27 → JFK 21:00 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 2224 ORD 17:50 → JFK 20:25 · 67% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 61% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 69% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


B6 406 JetBlue Flight history →	ORD 17:27	JFK 21:00	54%	25%	0.7%	80%worse than usual
AA 2224 American	ORD 17:50	JFK 20:25	67%	24%	0.6%	no record
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 18:00	JFK 21:40	51%	22%	23.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON