Today: UA 374 at 14:30 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet today UA 374 ORD 14:30 → LAX 17:05 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 2445 ORD 21:13 → LAX 23:57 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 374 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	LAX 17:05	24%	6%	0.2%	80%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:42	LAX 17:14	25%	7%	0.1%	68%
AA 2903 American	ORD 13:56	LAX 16:19	28%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 542 United	ORD 15:23	LAX 17:50	30%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 2060 United	ORD 21:30	LAX 00:09	31%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 2499 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:55	31%	7%	0.2%	58%
AA 529 American Flight history →	ORD 15:21	LAX 17:43	32%	7%	0.2%	59%
UA 600 United Flight history →	ORD 16:45	LAX 19:16	32%	9%	0.2%	68%
UA 576 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAX 18:20	33%	8%	0.2%	76%
AA 1209 American Flight history →	ORD 22:30	LAX 00:52	33%	7%	0.2%	53%
DL 2298 Delta Flight history →	ORD 18:35	LAX 21:12	33%	8%	0.1%	76%
AA 1114 American	ORD 21:18	LAX 23:49	35%	7%	0.2%	no record
DL 1775 Delta	ORD 19:07	LAX 21:27	37%	8%	0.1%	no record
UA 2494 United	ORD 17:00	LAX 19:30	38%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 1967 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	LAX 20:40	38%	8%	0.2%	69%
AA 3063 American Flight history →	ORD 19:07	LAX 21:26	39%	7%	0.2%	58%
AA 2364 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:33	40%	8%	0.2%	59%
AA 613 American Flight history →	ORD 20:49	LAX 23:13	40%	7%	0.2%	51%
AA 1437 American Flight history →	ORD 17:10	LAX 19:33	40%	8%	0.2%	55%
F9 2445 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 21:13	LAX 23:57	42%	14%	1.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON