Today: YX 4384 at 22:37 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–50%.

Safest bet today YX 4384 ORD 22:37 → MCI 00:21 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5712 ORD 18:35 → MCI 19:36 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4384 Republic	ORD 22:37	MCI 00:21	21%	7%	0.4%	no record
AA 3695 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:35	MCI 00:19	21%	7%	0.6%	69%
UA 4723 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:25	MCI 23:17	31%	17%	0.6%	59%
UA 1851 United Flight history →	ORD 20:15	MCI 22:04	35%	14%	0.3%	57%
UA 1884 United Flight history →	ORD 20:27	MCI 22:03	39%	14%	0.3%	52%
OO 5712 SkyWest	ORD 18:35	MCI 19:36	50%	25%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON