Today looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 26–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1159 ORD 19:10 → MIA 23:31 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2323 ORD 16:43 → MIA 21:07 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1159 American	ORD 19:10	MIA 23:31	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2690 American Flight history →	ORD 17:59	MIA 22:20	29%	10%	0.6%	45%
UA 2180 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	MIA 22:27	30%	10%	0.5%	69%
AA 3148 American Flight history →	ORD 14:30	MIA 18:49	30%	10%	0.6%	51%
AA 3040 American	ORD 17:39	MIA 22:03	31%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 1431 American Flight history →	ORD 14:30	MIA 18:33	31%	10%	0.6%	77%
AA 2323 American Flight history →	ORD 16:43	MIA 21:07	33%	10%	0.6%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON