Today: AA 3896 at 21:20 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–42%.

Safest bet today AA 3896 ORD 21:20 → MSY 23:47 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 3256 ORD 21:25 → MSY 23:58 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3896 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:20	MSY 23:47	28%	5%	1.0%	62%
UA 1761 United Flight history →	ORD 20:11	MSY 22:46	38%	10%	0.6%	63%
AA 3256 American	ORD 21:25	MSY 23:58	42%	11%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON