Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:23 pm at Chicago)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 17:13, is the safest bet: 38% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 49% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 658 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	ONT 22:51	31%	8%	0.3%	60%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 14:30 → SFO 17:19UA 1577	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552	10h 07m	96%	58%
United Details →	ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451	3h 11m Houston	IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563	9h 40m	97%	58%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	2h 49m Denver	DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028	8h 09m	90%	52%
American Details →	ORD 15:22 → PHX 17:05AA 2624	3h 25m Phoenix	PHX 20:30 → ONT 21:43AA 1238	8h 21m	95%	47%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:30 → ATL 16:40DL 2894	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779	10h 20m	97%	47%
American Details →	ORD 14:59 → DFW 17:35AA 2257	3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:27 → ONT 22:32AA 711	9h 33m	97%	42%
American Details →	ORD 16:51 → DFW 19:28AA 2988	3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:52 → ONT 23:59AA 1534	9h 08m	94%	39%
American Details →	ORD 16:13 → DFW 18:46AA 2531	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:39 → ONT 23:55AA 1695	9h 42m	94%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 19:40 → SLC 22:11DL 2376	48m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614	6h 08m	49%	37%
American Details →	ORD 15:10 → DFW 17:48AA 2429	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:50 → ONT 19:59AA 2236	6h 49m	62%	26%
American Details →	ORD 16:13 → DFW 18:46AA 2531	1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:59 → ONT 21:12AA 2147	6h 59m	62%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON