Today: AA 532 at 19:40 is the safest bet, 40% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 44–60%.

Safest bet today AA 532 ORD 19:40 → PHL 23:04 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 597 ORD 17:53 → PHL 21:06 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 51% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 532 American Flight history →	ORD 19:40	PHL 23:04	40%	15%	0.6%	62%
UA 1744 United Flight history →	ORD 21:45	PHL 00:57	44%	14%	0.6%	74%worse than usual
AA 490 American Flight history →	ORD 21:45	PHL 00:59	47%	16%	0.6%	56%
AA 2443 American Flight history →	ORD 18:40	PHL 21:58	52%	23%	0.6%	59%worse than usual
AA 1848 American Flight history →	ORD 17:07	PHL 20:25	53%	25%	0.6%	59%worse than usual
UA 1776 United Flight history →	ORD 17:59	PHL 21:19	60%	24%	0.4%	61%worse than usual
AA 597 American	ORD 17:53	PHL 21:06	60%	22%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON