Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 44–52% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2786 ORD 22:35 → PHX 00:14 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time Riskiest AA 332 ORD 20:54 → PHX 22:36 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Against a calm day 49% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 48% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 20 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2786 American Flight history →	ORD 22:35	PHX 00:14	44%	20%	0.4%	55%
AA 3277 American	ORD 20:59	PHX 22:54	50%	22%	0.4%	no record
AA 332 American Flight history →	ORD 20:54	PHX 22:36	52%	22%	0.4%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON