Today: UA 3464 at 21:20 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–43%.

Safest bet today UA 3464 ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1051 ORD 18:55 → PIT 21:31 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 16 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3464 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:20	PIT 23:59	16%	4%	0.2%	80%
AA 4539 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:08	PIT 23:52	16%	5%	0.2%	79%
AA 4527 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:42	PIT 23:23	18%	5%	0.2%	73%
AA 4569 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:29	PIT 21:14	20%	6%	0.2%	71%
AA 1051 American	ORD 18:55	PIT 21:31	43%	14%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON