Today: AA 4698 at 21:28 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36–44%.

Safest bet today AA 4698 ORD 21:28 → RIC 00:45 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time Riskiest AA 1288 ORD 19:09 → RIC 22:17 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4698 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:28	RIC 00:45	24%	7%	0.5%	50%
UA 1583 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	RIC 21:27	36%	9%	0.4%	66%
AA 1288 American	ORD 19:09	RIC 22:17	44%	13%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON