Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 31–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 308 ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 1179 ORD 17:50 → SNA 20:22 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 308 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	SNA 22:19	31%	4%	0.3%	84%worse than usual
UA 1107 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SNA 18:52	33%	9%	0.2%	69%
UA 1317 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SNA 18:58	33%	9%	0.2%	70%
AA 519 American Flight history →	ORD 17:05	SNA 19:27	39%	7%	0.6%	63%
AA 1179 American Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SNA 20:22	40%	7%	0.6%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON