Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 29–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 3069 ORD 23:14 → STL 00:44 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 2444 ORD 19:24 → STL 20:47 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 33% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3069 American Flight history →	ORD 23:14	STL 00:44	29%	10%	0.2%	62%
AA 1004 American Flight history →	ORD 23:00	STL 00:16	33%	10%	0.3%	58%
UA 8125 United	ORD 20:14	STL 21:39	35%	13%	0.2%	no record
AA 2444 American	ORD 19:24	STL 20:47	37%	11%	0.3%	no record
UA 4576 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 22:00	STL 23:29	30%	17%	6.5%	70%
UA 4518 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:45	STL 18:13	33%	18%	3.5%	67%
UA 4412 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 17:55	STL 19:23	44%	22%	2.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON