Today: AA 4281 at 22:30 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–35%.

Safest bet today AA 4281 ORD 22:30 → TUL 00:31 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest UA 2351 ORD 20:25 → TUL 22:18 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4281 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 22:30	TUL 00:31	17%	4%	0.4%	75%
AA 3827 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 17:00	TUL 19:06	21%	4%	0.5%	77%
MQ 3646 Envoy	ORD 16:57	TUL 19:03	22%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2351 United	ORD 20:25	TUL 22:18	35%	10%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON