tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:32 am at Orlando); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: UA 2802 at 09:57 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 52–56%.

Safest bet today UA 2802 MCO 09:57 → SFO 12:37 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 369 MCO 19:59 → SFO 22:37 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time
Against a calm day 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.
UA 2802 United MCO 09:57 SFO 12:37 21% 6% 0.3% no record
UA 2017 United Flight history → MCO 10:00 SFO 12:44 22% 6% 0.3% 70%
UA 2620 United Flight history → MCO 19:03 SFO 21:50 52% 19% 0.6% 70%worse than usual
AS 369 Alaska Flight history → MCO 19:59 SFO 22:37 56% 22% 1.0% 73%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260 8h 19m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → MCO 10:00 → DEN 12:00UA 1022 1h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 8h 09m 93% 69%
SouthwestDetails → MCO 10:00 → DEN 11:50WN 2630 1h 41m Denver DEN 13:31 → SFO 15:15WN 1772 8h 15m 94% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON