Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1150 at 07:09, 10%.

Safest bet today UA 1150 MCO 07:09 → ORD 09:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 2791 MCO 20:59 → ORD 23:10 · 64% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Weather 36% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1150 United Flight history →	MCO 07:09	ORD 09:18	10%	3%	0.2%	89%
WN 534 Southwest	MCO 10:10	MDW 12:07	10%	3%	0.3%	no record
UA 1993 United	MCO 07:16	ORD 09:22	11%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 4416 Southwest	MCO 10:40	MDW 12:20	11%	3%	0.3%	no record
WN 2771 Southwest	MCO 11:55	MDW 13:52	15%	4%	0.3%	no record
UA 2466 United Flight history →	MCO 09:04	ORD 11:11	15%	4%	0.2%	92%
AA 3018 American Flight history →	MCO 07:51	ORD 09:59	15%	5%	0.3%	88%
AA 465 American Flight history →	MCO 08:33	ORD 10:38	16%	5%	0.3%	84%
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 09:40	ORD 11:48	17%	4%	0.2%	94%worse than usual
AA 2279 American Flight history →	MCO 08:24	ORD 10:30	17%	5%	0.3%	76%
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	ORD 14:42	26%	7%	0.3%	82%
UA 3919 United	MCO 12:01	ORD 14:04	26%	8%	0.3%	no record
AA 2067 American Flight history →	MCO 11:38	ORD 13:45	26%	8%	0.4%	91%worse than usual
AA 662 American	MCO 11:41	ORD 13:47	26%	9%	0.4%	no record
WN 2617 Southwest	MCO 15:20	MDW 17:15	35%	9%	0.4%	no record
WN 979 Southwest	MCO 15:30	MDW 17:27	35%	9%	0.4%	no record
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	37%	9%	0.4%	72%
WN 2746 Southwest	MCO 17:25	MDW 19:22	45%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 2657 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:30	MDW 19:30	46%	15%	0.7%	52%
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	47%	14%	0.4%	58%
AA 2066 American Flight history →	MCO 15:11	ORD 17:29	47%	15%	0.5%	51%
AA 3031 American Flight history →	MCO 15:33	ORD 17:40	49%	15%	0.5%	64%worse than usual
AA 1782 American Flight history →	MCO 16:58	ORD 19:14	49%	15%	0.7%	42%
WN 693 Southwest	MCO 22:15	MDW 00:12	50%	15%	1.2%	no record
AA 2089 American Flight history →	MCO 16:41	ORD 18:59	50%	18%	0.6%	23%
UA 2845 United	MCO 18:02	ORD 20:11	54%	18%	0.6%	no record
WN 4762 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:00	MDW 23:50	56%	16%	1.2%	50%
WN 3651 Southwest	MCO 19:00	MDW 20:59	56%	16%	1.2%	no record
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 22:00	58%	22%	1.0%	70%worse than usual
WN 2660 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:55	MDW 20:50	62%	18%	1.2%	38%
F9 1349 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:45	ORD 22:57	64%	27%	2.1%	76%worse than usual
F9 2791 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:59	ORD 23:10	64%	30%	2.1%	58%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON