Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 64%, against 46% on a calm day. Safest: WN 5069 at 13:50, 52%.

Safest bet today WN 5069 MCO 13:50 → DAL 15:30 · 52% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1481 MCO 18:32 → DFW 20:26 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Weather 64% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 46% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 19 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 5069 Southwest	MCO 13:50	DAL 15:30	52%	12%	1.0%	no record
WN 1496 Southwest	MCO 14:50	DAL 16:30	53%	14%	1.0%	no record
AA 2081 American Flight history →	MCO 14:24	DFW 16:35	56%	24%	1.5%	63%worse than usual
WN 1347 Southwest	MCO 20:10	DAL 21:55	58%	20%	0.8%	no record
AA 1606 American	MCO 14:44	DFW 16:39	58%	22%	1.5%	no record
WN 3936 Southwest	MCO 19:51	DAL 21:37	61%	23%	0.8%	no record
AA 1737 American Flight history →	MCO 15:46	DFW 17:45	61%	22%	1.4%	70%worse than usual
AA 2143 American Flight history →	MCO 15:45	DFW 17:47	62%	25%	1.4%	46%
WN 990 Southwest	MCO 16:46	DAL 18:29	62%	23%	0.7%	no record
AA 2117 American Flight history →	MCO 19:37	DFW 21:36	65%	28%	1.3%	60%worse than usual
WN 1499 Southwest	MCO 18:10	DAL 20:10	66%	24%	0.9%	no record
AA 1937 American	MCO 20:04	DFW 22:01	66%	25%	1.3%	no record
WN 2707 Southwest	MCO 21:44	DAL 23:30	67%	30%	0.9%	no record
AA 2097 American Flight history →	MCO 16:47	DFW 18:50	68%	30%	1.3%	40%
AA 2457 American	MCO 19:12	DFW 21:13	68%	24%	1.4%	no record
WN 1973 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:50	DAL 23:30	69%	32%	0.9%	56%worse than usual
AA 1288 American Flight history →	MCO 17:47	DFW 19:58	69%	26%	1.3%	57%worse than usual
AA 3118 American	MCO 17:36	DFW 19:40	70%	30%	1.3%	no record
AA 2385 American Flight history →	MCO 18:26	DFW 20:30	75%	34%	1.4%	30%
F9 1481 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:32	DFW 20:26	75%	41%	2.7%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON