Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:52 pm at West Palm Beach); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 24% on a calm day. Safest: DL 838 at 16:55, 45%.

Nonstops today


DL 838 Delta Flight history →	PBI 16:55	ATL 18:53	45%	11%	1.9%	72%worse than usual
DL 1458 Delta Flight history →	PBI 18:27	ATL 20:34	46%	14%	2.3%	74%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31AA 2270	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → ATL 23:58AA 5498 · flown by PSA	6h 31m	96%	58%
Delta Details →	PBI 15:20 → LGA 18:22DL 2396	2h 08m New York	LGA 20:30 → ATL 23:43DL 975	8h 23m	92%	46%
American Details →	PBI 15:08 → LGA 18:09AA 4475 · flown by Republic	1h 26m New York	LGA 19:35 → ATL 22:15AA 4599 · flown by Republic	7h 07m	81%	46%
American Details →	PBI 15:05 → DCA 17:38AA 2281	2h 23m Washington	DCA 20:01 → ATL 22:03AA 5502 · flown by PSA	6h 58m	84%	46%
American Details →	PBI 16:06 → PHL 18:55AA 2280	3h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 21:58 → ATL 00:15 +1AA 443	8h 09m	91%	37%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PBI 16:08 → ORD 18:42UA 312	1h 27m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770	7h 22m	74%	49%
American Details →	PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31AA 2270	59m Charlotte	CLT 20:30 → ATL 21:52AA 5528 · flown by PSA	4h 25m	59%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON