Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:01 pm at West Palm Beach)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 46% (calm day: 29%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 16:55, 47% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 30m	92%	47%
Delta Details →	PBI 12:50 → ATL 14:48DL 1527	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 04m	94%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PBI 13:59 → ATL 15:54DL 1190	50m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	4h 55m	43%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON