Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:46 pm at West Palm Beach)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 17:27, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31AA 2270	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608	6h 40m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	7h 46m	99%	47%
United Details →	PBI 17:15 → EWR 20:15UA 1395	1h 35m Newark	EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784	6h 04m	78%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PBI 17:05 → IAH 18:59UA 1752	1h 17m Houston	IAH 20:16 → IAD 00:13 +1UA 1968	7h 08m	74%	47%
American Details →	PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31AA 2270	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 20:31 → IAD 22:05AA 5549 · flown by PSA	4h 38m	68%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON