Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:13 am at West Palm Beach); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 43%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1638 at 19:59, 39%.

Safest bet today DL 1638 PBI 19:59 → JFK 22:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time Riskiest B6 1054 PBI 14:08 → JFK 17:06 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Weather 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1638 Delta Flight history →	PBI 19:59	JFK 22:59	39%	19%	3.5%	56%
DL 2623 Delta Flight history →	PBI 11:59	JFK 14:54	42%	10%	4.3%	75%worse than usual
B6 1054 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 14:08	JFK 17:06	48%	24%	4.4%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON