Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:58 pm at West Palm Beach); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 39%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2466 at 19:37, 33%.

Safest bet today DL 2466 PBI 19:37 → LGA 22:33 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time Riskiest B6 1962 PBI 18:30 → LGA 21:18 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 2466 Delta Flight history →	PBI 19:37	LGA 22:33	33%	14%	4.3%	50%
AA 4475 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PBI 15:08	LGA 18:09	33%	19%	5.0%	69%
DL 2396 Delta Flight history →	PBI 15:20	LGA 18:22	35%	16%	5.5%	64%
B6 1962 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 18:30	LGA 21:18	54%	25%	3.1%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON