Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:08 pm at West Palm Beach); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51% (calm day: 29%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 16:55, 13% on time.

Nonstops today


AA 2275 American Flight history →	PBI 18:54	ORD 21:30	39%	13%	2.1%	69%
UA 312 United Flight history →	PBI 16:08	ORD 18:42	40%	13%	1.5%	62%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31AA 2270	3h 08m Charlotte	CLT 22:39 → ORD 00:01 +1AA 3014	7h 34m	96%	61%
United Details →	PBI 17:05 → IAH 18:59UA 1752	3h 09m Houston	IAH 22:08 → ORD 00:45 +1UA 1752	8h 40m	93%	60%
Delta Details →	PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	7h 58m	98%	58%
American Details →	PBI 16:06 → PHL 18:55AA 2280	3h 37m Philadelphia	PHL 22:32 → ORD 23:57AA 2668	8h 51m	94%	52%
Delta Details →	PBI 15:20 → LGA 18:22DL 2396	2h 23m New York	LGA 20:45 → ORD 22:36DL 2806	8h 16m	94%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PBI 17:15 → EWR 20:15UA 1395	1h 01m Newark	EWR 21:16 → ORD 22:49UA 3772	6h 34m	50%	25%
American Details →	PBI 16:06 → PHL 18:55AA 2280	59m Philadelphia	PHL 19:54 → ORD 21:34AA 490	6h 28m	55%	22%
Delta Details →	PBI 16:55 → ATL 18:53DL 838	46m Atlanta	ATL 19:39 → ORD 20:51DL 1139	4h 56m	32%	13%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON