Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:02 pm at West Palm Beach); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Charlotte, leaving 17:27, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PBI 17:27 → CLT 19:31AA 2270	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	6h 55m	96%	59%
Delta Details →	PBI 18:27 → ATL 20:34DL 1458	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 32m	91%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON