Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:27 pm at West Palm Beach)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 49% (calm day: 38%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:27, 36% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind West Palm Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PBI 18:27 → ATL 20:34DL 1458	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	9h 09m	88%	36%
American Details →	PBI 18:44 → DFW 21:00AA 2282	1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:59 → SFO 00:43 +1AA 446	8h 59m	83%	34%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PBI 18:44 → DFW 21:00AA 2282	1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:10 → SFO 00:05 +1AA 2775	8h 21m	65%	29%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON