Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:28 pm at Portland); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: DL 564 at 22:55, 35%.

Nonstops today


DL 564 Delta Flight history →	PDX 22:55	ATL 06:27	35%	10%	0.7%	76%worse than usual
DL 2060 Delta	PDX 23:07	ATL 06:55	36%	9%	0.7%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 20:44 → SEA 21:56DL 3923 · flown by SkyWest	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 23:14 → ATL 07:04 +1DL 567	7h 20m	85%	56%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PDX 19:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1238	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	6h 54m	69%	41%
Delta Details →	PDX 20:30 → LAX 23:00DL 2459	59m Los Angeles	LAX 23:59 → ATL 07:33 +1DL 320	8h 03m	69%	38%
Delta Details →	PDX 20:44 → SEA 21:56DL 3923 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 22:58 → ATL 06:45 +1DL 409	7h 01m	53%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON