Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at Portland); 3 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: AS 559 at 17:57, 26%.

Nonstops today


AS 559 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:57	BUR 20:18	26%	6%	0.3%	89%worse than usual
AS 1386 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:55	BUR 17:13	26%	4%	0.4%	87%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Eugene	EUG 17:50 → BUR 20:09AS 3260 · flown by SkyWest	5h 39m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:30AS 3408 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m Seattle	SEA 19:19 → BUR 21:55AS 727	6h 25m	91%	47%
Southwest Details →	PDX 14:45 → DEN 18:20WN 2519	2h 11m Denver	DEN 20:31 → BUR 22:05WN 4390	7h 20m	87%	37%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 17:30 → SEA 18:33AS 430	46m Seattle	SEA 19:19 → BUR 21:55AS 727	4h 25m	19%	10%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON