Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:09 pm at Portland)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48% (calm day: 34%). Best bet: Southwest via Denver, leaving 14:45, 24% on time.

Nonstops today


WN 1534 Southwest	PDX 14:55	DAL 20:35	42%	7%	0.4%	no record
WN 3311 Southwest	PDX 16:05	DAL 21:47	46%	8%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PDX 14:45 → DEN 18:20WN 2519	2h 05m Denver	DEN 20:25 → DAL 23:30WN 1523	6h 45m	85%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PDX 14:45 → DEN 18:20WN 2519	49m Denver	DEN 19:09 → DAL 22:09WN 1578	5h 24m	39%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON