Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:56 pm at Portland); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 36%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: UA 498 at 23:30, 36%.

Nonstops today


UA 498 United Flight history →	PDX 23:30	IAD 07:32	36%	6%	0.7%	92%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PDX 19:27 → SFO 21:41UA 2615	1h 39m San Francisco	SFO 23:20 → IAD 07:48 +1UA 2111	9h 21m	87%	55%
Alaska Details →	PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 22:43 → IAD 06:39 +1AS 367	8h 01m	92%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PDX 19:27 → SFO 21:41UA 2615	54m San Francisco	SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:55 +1UA 2837	8h 28m	64%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON