Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:28 pm at Portland); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 21:30, is the safest bet: 51% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops today


DL 2139 Delta Flight history →	PDX 22:40	JFK 06:55	14%	4%	0.3%	92%
AS 336 Alaska	PDX 21:28	JFK 05:28	18%	4%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244	3h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705	10h 04m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	PDX 17:36 → SFO 19:30AS 504	2h 48m San Francisco	SFO 22:18 → JFK 06:31 +1AS 40	9h 55m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:16AS 1565	2h 48m Anchorage	ANC 20:04 → JFK 07:18 +1AS 1535	13h 48m	93%	67%
American Details →	PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12AA 2986	3h 38m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	11h 16m	93%	67%
Alaska Details →	PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	9h 00m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:50 → SEA 18:59DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	10h 00m	99%	64%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:00DL 2551	2h 45m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → JFK 07:03 +1DL 676	10h 26m	91%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	48m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	7h 08m	75%	51%
Delta Details →	PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:00DL 2551	1h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 21:00 → JFK 05:16 +1DL 960	8h 39m	67%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON