tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:09 pm at Portland); 1 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:14, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 17% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 3h 30m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 46m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → PDX 19:27 → SFO 21:42UA 2615 2h 17m San Francisco SFO 23:59 → MCO 08:34 +1UA 1267 10h 07m 94% 69%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 17:30 → SEA 18:33AS 430 3h 00m Seattle SEA 21:33 → MCO 06:16 +1AS 394 9h 46m 100% 64%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:00DL 2551 2h 27m Los Angeles LAX 22:27 → MCO 06:25 +1DL 547 9h 48m 91% 64%
DeltaDetails → PDX 20:44 → SEA 21:56DL 3923 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m Seattle SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448 7h 56m 89% 59%
AmericanDetails → PDX 17:28 → PHX 20:10AA 2288 1h 41m Phoenix PHX 21:51 → MCO 05:00 +1AA 563 8h 32m 80% 50%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 17:35 → SAN 20:11AS 667 1h 16m San Diego SAN 21:27 → MCO 05:11 +1AS 708 8h 36m 78% 43%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 19:38 → SEA 20:33AS 2313 · flown by Horizon 56m Seattle SEA 21:29 → MCO 05:52 +1AS 390 7h 14m 51% 31%
SouthwestDetails → PDX 19:25 → PHX 22:05WN 1048 50m Phoenix PHX 22:55 → MCO 06:09 +1WN 3424 7h 44m 34% 21%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 17:40 → SAN 20:18AS 369 48m San Diego SAN 21:06 → MCO 05:18 +1AS 707 8h 38m 17% 10%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON