Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: AS 697 at 21:33, 31%.

Safest bet today AS 697 PDX 21:33 → SFO 23:27 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2615 PDX 19:27 → SFO 21:41 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 15 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 697 Alaska	PDX 21:33	SFO 23:27	31%	11%	0.4%	no record
UA 2615 United Flight history →	PDX 19:27	SFO 21:41	36%	20%	0.4%	55%
AS 2112 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:45	SFO 23:36	36%	11%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON