Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:16 pm at Philadelphia); 17 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 61–62% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 808 American Flight history →	PHL 20:12	DFW 22:53	61%	22%	1.2%	66%worse than usual
AA 1115 American Flight history →	PHL 20:22	DFW 23:00	62%	22%	1.2%	69%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 19:48 → LAS 22:09AA 3005	1h 50m Las Vegas	LAS 23:59 → DFW 04:44 +1AA 3099	9h 56m	85%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 19:35 → CLT 21:29AA 1661	1h 06m Charlotte	CLT 22:35 → DFW 00:21 +1AA 1256	5h 46m	41%	24%
American Details →	PHL 19:52 → LAX 22:55AA 2197	53m Los Angeles	LAX 23:48 → DFW 05:01 +1AA 3136	10h 09m	39%	23%
Delta Details →	PHL 19:25 → ATL 21:39DL 1329	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	5h 48m	65%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON