Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:52 pm at Philadelphia); 12 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 39–40% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2185 PHL 18:30 → FLL 21:24 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time Riskiest AA 1864 PHL 19:20 → FLL 22:25 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 49% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2185 American Flight history →	PHL 18:30	FLL 21:24	39%	10%	0.6%	50%
AA 2462 American	PHL 18:30	FLL 21:14	39%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 1864 American Flight history →	PHL 19:20	FLL 22:25	40%	10%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON