Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:22 pm at Philadelphia); 7 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 45–50% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2474 PHL 18:19 → IAH 21:04 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 3021 PHL 19:55 → IAH 22:49 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 46% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2474 United Flight history →	PHL 18:19	IAH 21:04	45%	14%	0.5%	85%worse than usual
AA 889 American Flight history →	PHL 20:14	IAH 23:15	50%	14%	0.6%	69%worse than usual
AA 3021 American Flight history →	PHL 19:55	IAH 22:49	50%	19%	0.6%	70%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON