Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:29 pm at Philadelphia); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: AA 738 at 22:05 is the safest bet, 37% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–54%.

Safest bet today AA 738 PHL 22:05 → LAX 00:50 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 2252 PHL 19:37 → LAX 22:25 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 47% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 44% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 738 American Flight history →	PHL 22:05	LAX 00:50	37%	10%	0.3%	62%
AA 3235 American Flight history →	PHL 22:22	LAX 01:12	37%	10%	0.4%	68%
AA 2225 American	PHL 15:46	LAX 18:33	43%	10%	0.4%	no record
AA 798 American Flight history →	PHL 15:35	LAX 18:20	48%	11%	0.4%	73%worse than usual
DL 8865 Delta	PHL 18:02	LAX 20:32	48%	18%	0.6%	no record
AA 2197 American Flight history →	PHL 19:52	LAX 22:55	50%	14%	0.4%	54%
AA 1284 American Flight history →	PHL 18:01	LAX 20:45	52%	13%	0.4%	46%
AA 3123 American	PHL 17:43	LAX 20:29	52%	12%	0.4%	no record
AA 2252 American	PHL 19:37	LAX 22:25	54%	14%	0.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHL 19:45 → IAD 21:10UA 4587 · flown by GoJet	1h 10m Dulles	IAD 22:20 → LAX 00:57 +1UA 1385	8h 12m	84%	57%
United Details →	PHL 16:14 → DEN 18:25UA 2644	1h 27m Denver	DEN 19:52 → LAX 21:28UA 1460	8h 14m	77%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON