Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:14 pm at Philadelphia); 20 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 31% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2840 at 23:03, 46%.

Safest bet today AA 2840 PHL 23:03 → ORD 00:29 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 2668 PHL 22:32 → ORD 23:57 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 31% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 20 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2840 American Flight history →	PHL 23:03	ORD 00:29	46%	22%	0.7%	67%worse than usual
AA 3042 American Flight history →	PHL 21:32	ORD 23:30	48%	24%	0.7%	63%worse than usual
AA 372 American	PHL 21:22	ORD 23:00	50%	24%	0.6%	no record
AA 2668 American	PHL 22:32	ORD 23:57	56%	23%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON